GobiDesertCanoePro

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -19.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$179Yes · avg 5.2¢ → 5¢ · $4,363 Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$684Yes · avg 2.4¢ → 1.5¢ · $1,015 Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$450Yes · avg 2.2¢ → 1.5¢ · $870 Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?+$10No · avg 66¢ → 81¢ · $55 Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?−$1No · avg 99.5¢ → 96.2¢ · $36 Will Venezuela become 51st state?+$0No · avg 97.2¢ → 97.9¢ · $24 Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?+$0No · avg 95.2¢ → 95.5¢ · $19

Price-adjusted edge

-19.5 pts

Called / graded

0/2

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$103.4k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$9,585

Last 30 days +$423 · $5.60M volume · 4,398 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$72.9k

Open P&L · 16 positions

−$2,374

Closed-position win rate

88%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

727d

540 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	1	0	0.1	-5.9 pts
Sports	1	0	0.3	-33.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢	$19.9k	33%	109d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$14.6k	97%	172d ago	excluded
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$51.9k 2.8× usual	0%	293d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 94.1¢	$17.1k	6%	356d ago	missed

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 33¢$19.9k

LOW GobiDesertCanoePro · 109d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded

BUY No @ 97.4¢$14.6k

LOW GobiDesertCanoePro · 172d ago

Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$51.9k

LOW GobiDesertCanoePro · 293d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed

SELL Yes @ 94.1¢$17.1k

LOW GobiDesertCanoePro · 356d ago

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