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What this means. A wallet put $38.0k on Under, at a price that gave it a 49% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$38.0k
BUY Under @ 49¢ · 77,659 shares
Size ≥ $10kSports
What happened
Wallet SparYel took Under (buy) for $38.0k at an average 49¢. At that price the market implied a 49% chance for that side. The market resolved Over, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $38.0k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 49¢ means
49%chance the market gave
+104American odds
$1.00paid per share if Under wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 49¢
- Implied odds
- 48.9%
- As American odds
- +104 no vig
- Size
- $38.0k
- Placed
- Oct 24, 03:56 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 24, 07:30 EDT
- Result
- Over
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- SparYel
- Tx
- 0xfe1a6bd7…
This wallet's graded record
1/3-16.3 pts
expected 1.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -49 ptsUnder price · entry 49¢ · resolved Over
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Same game on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| YES Aston Villa | $11.9k | 91¢ | 9h ago |
| YES Aston Villa | $11.3k | 89¢ | 9h ago |
| NO Tie | $18.1k | 89¢ | 9h ago |
| YES Aston Villa | $10.1k | 81¢ | 9h ago |
| NO Manchester City | $14.4k | 95¢ | 9h ago |
| YES Aston Villa | $24.5k | 71¢ | 9h ago |
| NO Manchester City | $19.9k | 93¢ | 9h ago |
| YES Aston Villa | $10.4k | 55¢ | 9h ago |