Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$619
Return on staked
-23.8%
Bets
10/26 won
Edge vs price
-18.2 pts ±8.7
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -17.6 pts (5/13). Newer half: -18.9 pts (5/13).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 21, 11:12 EDTSep 22, 09:40 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 81¢ | called | 32d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 90¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 76¢ | missed | 68d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 68¢ | missed | 72d ago |
| LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | 53¢ | missed | 77d ago |
| Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 92¢ | missed | 98d ago |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | 35¢ | called | 99d ago |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | 34¢ | called | 99d ago |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | 34¢ | called | 99d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 54¢ | missed | 102d ago |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | 57¢ | missed | 105d ago |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | 36¢ | missed | 105d ago |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | 36¢ | missed | 105d ago |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | missed | 109d ago |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5 | 35¢ | missed | 111d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.