Guide
Reading sharp Polymarket odds moves
What a 10-point swing in 24 hours can mean, and how to filter out the noise.
What we flag
An odds move flag fires when an outcome's price changes by 10 points or more in 24 hours on a market with at least $25k of 24h volume, excluding prices below 3¢ or above 97¢ and markets that have ended.
Common causes
News, lineups, polls, official announcements, and sometimes a single large order walking the book. Thin markets move further on less money.
Pair it with flow
An odds move with several large same-side trades behind it is different from one with no whale activity. Open the market page to see the price chart with whale entries marked.
Grading
Odds-move flags are graded like whale flags: did the side that moved up win, compared with the price after the move.
Live right now
5759 of 10562 graded whale flags called vs 6143.5 expected from price: -3.6 pts. Scoreboard →
More guides
- Polymarket leaderboards explained
- How Polymarket markets resolve
- How to track Polymarket whales
- What is price-adjusted edge?
- Fresh wallets and 'insider' signals on Polymarket
- Does copying Polymarket whales work?
- Fresh Polymarket wallets: insiders or noise?
- Polymarket whale alerts that don't waste your time
- Pulling Polymarket whale trades with the Data API
- Polymarket sports whales: what big bets on games tell you
- How to read a Polymarket wallet's track record
Data only. Not financial advice.