Guide
Fresh wallets and 'insider' signals on Polymarket
What a large bet from a brand-new wallet can and cannot tell you.
The pattern
A wallet that first appeared days ago, or has traded only a few markets, places a large bet. Traders watch for this because informed money sometimes arrives in new wallets.
Why it is weak evidence on its own
New wallets are also created by ordinary traders, by people moving funds, and by bots. Most fresh-wallet bets are not informed. That is why WhaleGrader grades these flags like any other once the market resolves.
How WhaleGrader defines fresh
First Polymarket activity less than 14 days before the trade, or 5 or fewer markets traded, based on Polymarket's public Data API.
Where to see it
The Fresh wallets page lists recent large trades from such wallets, and the live feed marks them with a NEW tag.
Live right now
5773 of 10586 graded whale flags called vs 6157.5 expected from price: -3.6 pts. Scoreboard →
More guides
- Polymarket leaderboards explained
- How Polymarket markets resolve
- Reading sharp Polymarket odds moves
- How to track Polymarket whales
- What is price-adjusted edge?
- Does copying Polymarket whales work?
- Fresh Polymarket wallets: insiders or noise?
- Polymarket whale alerts that don't waste your time
- Pulling Polymarket whale trades with the Data API
- Polymarket sports whales: what big bets on games tell you
- How to read a Polymarket wallet's track record
Data only. Not financial advice.