What is price-adjusted edge?
Why win rate is misleading for prediction-market traders, and how WhaleGrader scores whales against the price they paid.
Win rate hides the price
Buying heavy favorites produces a high win rate and no skill. Someone who buys at 95¢ and wins 95% of the time has done exactly what the market expected.
The formula
For each graded flag, expected = the entry price for a buy (or 1 − price for a sell). Edge = (flags called − sum of expected) ÷ number of flags, shown in percentage points. Positive means the wallet beat its prices.
Sample size matters
With a handful of flags, luck dominates. WhaleGrader shows the count and a standard error next to every edge and requires a minimum sample for the leaderboard.
What we exclude
Flags placed less than an hour before a market starts or closes, near-certain entries (≤3¢ or ≥97¢), flags with no outcome, and two-sided market-maker style activity in the same market.
More guides
- Polymarket leaderboards explained
- How Polymarket markets resolve
- Reading sharp Polymarket odds moves
- How to track Polymarket whales
- Fresh wallets and 'insider' signals on Polymarket
- Does copying Polymarket whales work?
- Fresh Polymarket wallets: insiders or noise?
- Polymarket whale alerts that don't waste your time
- Pulling Polymarket whale trades with the Data API
- Polymarket sports whales: what big bets on games tell you
- How to read a Polymarket wallet's track record
Data only. Not financial advice.