How to read a Polymarket wallet's track record
Win rate, profit and edge each tell you something different. Here's how to judge a wallet in under a minute.
Start with the sample
How many of the wallet's big bets have resolved? Under 20, almost any record can be luck. Our leaderboards require at least 20 and always show the count.
Win rate vs price
Winning 80% of bets placed at 85¢ is losing to the price. Compare the share of bets won with the share the entry prices implied. That gap is the edge.
One big win
Profit can come from a single lucky long shot. Each wallet page shows the record with its best bet removed; if the edge disappears, so does the case for skill.
Recent form
An edge that was strong last spring and negative over the last 10 bets is fading. Leaderboard rows mark these.
Calibration
When the wallet buys at 30¢, does it win about 30% of the time, or more? The calibration table on each wallet page groups bets by entry price to show this.
Look one up
Paste any wallet address or Polymarket profile link into the lookup on the home page.
More guides
- Polymarket leaderboards explained
- How Polymarket markets resolve
- Reading sharp Polymarket odds moves
- How to track Polymarket whales
- What is price-adjusted edge?
- Fresh wallets and 'insider' signals on Polymarket
- Does copying Polymarket whales work?
- Fresh Polymarket wallets: insiders or noise?
- Polymarket whale alerts that don't waste your time
- Pulling Polymarket whale trades with the Data API
- Polymarket sports whales: what big bets on games tell you
Data only. Not financial advice.