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What this means. A wallet put $20.6k on not Yes, at a price that gave it a 13% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.6k
SELL Yes @ 87¢ · 23,626 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet geniusMC took Yes (sell) for $20.6k at an average 87¢. At that price the market implied a 13% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $20.6k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 87¢
- Implied odds
- 13.0%
- Size
- $20.6k
- Placed
- Apr 04, 21:14 EDT
- Market close
- May 19, 20:17 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- geniusMC
- Tx
- 0xb05684c7…
This wallet's graded record
3/4+12.7 pts
expected 2.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $60.3k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $39.4k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $10.3k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $17.7k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $13.1k | called |