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What this means. A wallet put $13.4k on Texas, at a price that gave it a 61% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Ole Miss vs. Texaspending
$13.4k
BUY Texas @ 61¢ · 22,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Sports

What happened

Wallet ArielFilipino took Texas (buy) for $13.4k at an average 61¢. At that price the market implied a 61% chance for that side. Pending: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More

Why this was flagged

LOW
Size $13.4k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 61¢ means
61%chance the market gave
−156American odds
$1.00paid per share if Texas wins

Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.

Entry price
61¢
Implied odds
61.0%
As American odds
−156 no vig
Size
$13.4k
Placed
Oct 22, 18:54 EDT
Market close
Oct 24, 19:30 EDT
Result
not settled yet
Counts toward score
yes
Wallet
ArielFilipino
Tx
0xbd584594…
This wallet's graded record
1/4-27.2 pts
expected 2.1 from price
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Price since this bet

Since entry -2.5 pts
Texas price · entry 61¢ · now 58¢
55¢60¢65¢ Whale entry 61¢ · $13.4k WHALE $13.4K @ 61¢ -2 PTS
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.

Same game on Kalshi

Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.

NO Ole Miss$11.2k59¢4h ago
NO Over 54.5 points$10.6k53¢4h ago
YES Texas wins by over 2.5 points$10.9k55¢4h ago
YES Texas$13.1k59¢4h ago
YES Ole Miss$16.6k42¢8h ago
YES Texas$19.3k59¢9h ago