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What this means. A wallet put $47.3k on No, at a price that gave it a 58% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$47.3k
BUY No @ 58¢ · 81,562 shares
Size ≥ $10k2.5× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet btmx6 took No (buy) for $47.3k at an average 58¢. At that price the market implied a 58% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $47.3k+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 58¢ means
58%chance the market gave
−138American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 58¢
- Implied odds
- 58.0%
- As American odds
- −138 no vig
- Size
- $47.3k
- Placed
- Sep 25, 15:59 EDT
- Market close
- Sep 26, 14:45 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- btmx6
- Tx
- 0x7af174c4…
This wallet's graded record
2/9-27.4 pts
expected 4.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -58 ptsNo price · entry 58¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 84¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $98.7k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | LOW BUY No @ 54¢ | $23.8k | excluded |