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What this means. A wallet put $49.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 36% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$49.9k
BUY Yes @ 36¢ · 138,653 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hOther
What happened
Wallet 0xaf21…7482 took Yes (buy) for $49.9k at an average 36¢. At that price the market implied a 36% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $49.9k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 36¢ means
36%chance the market gave
+178American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 36¢
- Implied odds
- 36.0%
- Size
- $49.9k
- Placed
- Aug 18, 13:50 EDT
- Market close
- Aug 18, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0xaf21…7482
- Tx
- 0x88f53e62…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-36.0 pts
expected 0.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -36 ptsYes price · entry 36¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $89.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $45.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |