← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $15.8k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 33% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.8k
BUY Yes @ 33¢ · 48,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet thesingularityisnear took Yes (buy) for $15.8k at an average 33¢. At that price the market implied a 33% chance for that side. Pending: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 33¢ means
33%chance the market gave
+204American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 33¢
- Implied odds
- 32.8%
- Size
- $15.8k
- Placed
- Oct 23, 05:18 EDT
- Market close
- Nov 03, 23:59 EST
- Result
- not settled yet
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- thesingularityisnear
- Tx
- 0x6ded6bca…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-3.0 pts
expected 0.0 from price
Share this receipt
Price since this bet
Since entry -0.3 ptsYes price · entry 33¢ · now 32¢
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $10.1k | pending |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | LOW SELL No @ 64¢ | $11.4k | pending |
Same event on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same event, which can be on a different answer than this bet. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| YES Democratic Party | $12.9k | 69¢ | 1d ago |