← Wallets
+$8,795No · avg 73¢ → 82¢ · $81.0k+$2,060Yes · avg 65¢ → 68¢ · $48.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$5,806No · avg 80¢ → 94.5¢ · $37.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$29.3kYes · avg 33¢ → 17¢ · $30.2k+$4,543No · avg 66¢ → 86¢ · $19.5k+$3,784Yes · avg 65¢ → 85¢ · $16.1k−$62Yes · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $11.3k+$561Yes · avg 63¢ → 66¢ · $10.6k · 2 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +11.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
No · Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+11.7 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$401.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$535.6k
Last 30 days +$5,211 · $7.61M volume · 4,894 trades · since Jul 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$572.3k
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$16.8k
Closed-position win rate
72%
109 closed
Wallet age · markets
824d
128 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +25.0 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $10.1k | pending |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $13.0k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 95¢ | $18.2k | missed |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $10.2k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 87¢ | $33.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $68.8k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 75¢ | $68.8k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 80¢ | $85.0k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $79.4k 3.1× usual |
called |
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