SPCEXBUYER

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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -12.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-12.0 pts

Called / graded

2/6

Expected from price

2.7

Flagged volume

$4.81M

Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.2 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$120k

6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup at 42¢) and the edge is -26.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

40–60¢

33% vs 45% · n=6

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$839.4k

Last 30 days −$43.2k · $88.09M volume · 41,174 trades · since Jun 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	MED BUY MOUZ @ 47¢	$101.7k 3.0× usual	47%	53d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW BUY Lynn Vision @ 51¢	$30.1k	51%	57d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	LOW SELL TEAM VISION @ 49¢	$10.4k	51%	61d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED BUY FUT Esports @ 26¢	$86.6k 2.5× usual	26%	61d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner	LOW BUY Team Spirit @ 50¢	$10.0k	50%	62d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 55¢	$12.3k	55%	62d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	HIGH BUY Team Spirit @ 58¢	$458.5k 13.5× usual	58%	62d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner	MED BUY Team Spirit @ 65¢	$96.0k 2.8× usual	65%	62d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED BUY FUT Esports @ 36¢	$92.7k 2.7× usual	36%	62d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED SELL FURIA @ 65¢	$101.1k 3.0× usual	35%	62d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED BUY FUT Esports @ 40¢	$102.8k 3.0× usual	40%	62d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	MED BUY Team Yandex @ 46¢	$120.2k 3.5× usual	46%	63d ago	excluded
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas @ 52¢	$12.3k	52%	63d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs	MED BUY Team Yandex @ 29¢	$86.8k 2.5× usual	29%	63d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	MED BUY Team Liquid @ 39¢	$73.0k 2.1× usual	39%	63d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 65¢	$13.2k	65%	63d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs	LOW BUY Team Yandex @ 66¢	$13.2k	66%	63d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED BUY Spirit @ 43¢	$79.4k 2.3× usual	43%	63d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 42¢	$26.6k	42%	63d ago	called
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner	MED SELL TEAM VISION @ 99.9¢	$499.5k 14.7× usual	0%	63d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs	MED BUY Team Liquid @ 59¢	$244.7k 7.2× usual	59%	64d ago	excluded
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner	MED BUY BNK FEARX @ 49¢	$34.6k	49%	64d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY Team Liquid @ 56¢	$56.0k	56%	64d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 48¢	$24.0k	48%	64d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	LOW BUY Iron Wing @ 41¢	$12.8k	41%	64d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY G2 @ 42¢	$19.4k	42%	64d ago	missed
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY Team Liquid @ 50¢	$30.0k	50%	64d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY Team Yandex @ 48¢	$13.2k	48%	64d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	LOW SELL Team Yandex @ 47¢	$10.3k	53%	65d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	LOW SELL TEAM VISION @ 99.9¢	$163.6k 4.8× usual	0%	65d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	LOW BUY TEAM VISION @ 82¢	$12.2k	82%	65d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	LOW SELL BoomBoys @ 35¢	$34.1k	65%	65d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY TEAM VISION @ 66¢	$33.0k	66%	65d ago	excluded
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	LOW SELL Anyones Legend @ 99.9¢	$165.3k 4.9× usual	0%	65d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	LOW SELL BoomBoys @ 28¢	$12.6k	72%	65d ago	called
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner	MED BUY Anyones Legend @ 53¢	$27.4k	53%	65d ago	excluded
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs	MED BUY BoomBoys @ 28¢	$43.3k	28%	66d ago	missed
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY Team Yandex @ 48¢	$10.7k	48%	66d ago	called
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY Team Yandex @ 48¢	$10.2k	48%	66d ago	called
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY T1 @ 55¢	$11.2k	55%	68d ago	excluded
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs	MED BUY T1 @ 42¢	$25.4k	42%	68d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner	LOW BUY Aurora @ 46¢	$16.1k	46%	69d ago	excluded
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	LOW BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas @ 75¢	$96.3k 2.8× usual	75%	70d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage	MED BUY Iron Wing @ 52¢	$91.0k 2.7× usual	52%	70d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY KT Rolster @ 36¢	$10.3k	36%	70d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C	LOW BUY FUT Esports @ 36¢	$32.4k	36%	70d ago	excluded
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage	LOW BUY GamerLegion @ 50¢	$11.4k	50%	71d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs	LOW SELL MOUZ @ 99.9¢	$152.5k 4.5× usual	0%	82d ago	excluded
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	MED BUY JD Gaming @ 63¢	$32.7k	63%	85d ago	excluded
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	MED BUY Anyones Legend @ 47¢	$36.8k	47%	89d ago	excluded
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves	LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 46¢	$11.2k	46%	95d ago	missed
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	MED BUY Spain @ 71¢	$134.4k 3.9× usual	71%	96d ago	excluded
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner	MED BUY Karmine Corp @ 46¢	$67.3k	46%	96d ago	excluded
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox	MED BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 49¢	$88.7k 2.6× usual	49%	97d ago	excluded
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner	MED BUY Gen.G @ 79¢	$58.3k	79%	97d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D	HIGH BUY JD Gaming @ 35¢	$142.5k 4.2× usual	35%	100d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	LOW SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢	$21.0k	0%	105d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 77¢	$15.4k	77%	105d ago	excluded
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	MED BUY No @ 47¢	$141.0k 4.1× usual	47%	117d ago	missed
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	MED BUY Yes @ 54¢	$162.0k 4.8× usual	54%	118d ago	called
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	MED BUY No @ 41¢	$123.0k 3.6× usual	41%	119d ago	missed
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 44¢	$15.4k	44%	120d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	MED BUY No @ 24¢	$28.8k	24%	121d ago	excluded
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	MED BUY Yes @ 66¢	$101.2k 3.0× usual	66%	123d ago	excluded
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	MED BUY No @ 40¢	$200.0k 5.9× usual	40%	124d ago	excluded

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