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What this means. A wallet put $76.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 85% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+10.0 pts over 62 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$76.0k
BUY Yes @ 85¢ · 89,411 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hProven wallet2.9× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet swisstony took Yes (buy) for $76.0k at an average 85¢. At that price the market implied a 85% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $76.0k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 85¢ means
85%chance the market gave
−567American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 85¢
- Implied odds
- 85.0%
- As American odds
- −567 no vig
- Size
- $76.0k
- Placed
- Jul 03, 06:41 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 03, 18:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- swisstony
- Tx
- 0xda875e31…
This wallet's graded record
51/62+10.0 pts
expected 44.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -85 ptsYes price · entry 85¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $90.4k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $79.6k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $40.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $999.0k 19.2× usual |
excluded |