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What this means. A wallet put $16.6k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 75% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+8.5 pts over 35 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$16.6k
BUY Yes @ 75¢ · 22,080 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Proven walletOther
What happened
Wallet MisTKy took Yes (buy) for $16.6k at an average 75¢. At that price the market implied a 75% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $16.6k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 75¢ means
75%chance the market gave
−300American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 75¢
- Implied odds
- 75.0%
- Size
- $16.6k
- Placed
- Aug 25, 06:03 EDT
- Market close
- Aug 30, 17:40 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MisTKy
- Tx
- 0x86f84642…
This wallet's graded record
25/35+8.5 pts
expected 22.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -75 ptsYes price · entry 75¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $34.1k | excluded |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $29.1k | missed |