Weekly report card
Week 2025-48
Nov 24, 00:00 EST – Nov 30, 23:59 EST · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-15.8 pts
Called
5/10
Expected from price
6.6
Std. error
±10.0
In week 2025-48, 10 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 5 times; entry prices implied 6.6. Whales did no better than the price (-15.8 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 10 | 5 | 6.6 | -15.8 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
called333d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
BUYNo@ 90¢→No
$10.7k · GeorgeFuhrerimplied 90%
called333d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
BUYNo@ 90¢→No
$10.9k · 0xf98b…bfc5implied 90%
called333d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
BUYNo@ 96¢→No
$13.1k · 0xf5eb…f269implied 96%
Biggest misses
missed338d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
SELLNo@ 67¢→No
$18.5k · 0xc2e2…9b0cimplied 33%
missed333d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
SELLNo@ 94.9¢→No
$12.9k · 0x9189…7250implied 5%
missed332d ago
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
SELLNo@ 95.1¢→No
$12.1k · 0x8203…0187implied 5%
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $32.0k | called |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ | $28.0k | called |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW SELL No @ 67¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $13.1k | called |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW SELL No @ 94.9¢ | $12.9k | missed |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW SELL No @ 95.1¢ | $12.1k | missed |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $10.0k | missed |
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