sdiff123

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -36.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?−$127No · avg 97¢ → 96.2¢ · $16.4k Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?+$80No · avg 88¢ → 91.3¢ · $1,938 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?+$46Yes · avg 53¢ → 56¢ · $859 Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? +$150No · avg 69¢ → 92¢ · $598 Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?+$84No · avg 75¢ → 97.8¢ · $361 Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?+$112Yes · avg 44¢ → 66¢ · $337 Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?+$17No · avg 90¢ → 95.7¢ · $281 Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?+$9No · avg 52¢ → 70¢ · $34

Price-adjusted edge

-36.6 pts

Called / graded

0/2

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$152.4k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$32.6k

Last 30 days −$907 · $19.01M volume · 16,593 trades · since Nov 04, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$366.5k

Open P&L · 132 positions

−$98.1k

Closed-position win rate

80%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

1329d

691 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	0	0.7	-36.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Netanyahu out by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 96.5¢	$28.9k	4%	220d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 95¢	$28.5k	5%	279d ago	missed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$22.1k	81%	282d ago	called
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢	$10.5k	70%	347d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.8¢	$30.0k	94%	359d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED SELL Yes @ 92.5¢	$32.4k	7%	359d ago	missed

Netanyahu out by March 31?missed

SELL No @ 96.5¢$28.9k

MED sdiff123 · 220d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed

SELL No @ 95¢$28.5k

MED sdiff123 · 279d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 81¢$22.1k

LOW sdiff123 · 282d ago

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?missed

BUY Yes @ 70¢$10.5k

LOW sdiff123 · 347d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 93.8¢$30.0k

LOW sdiff123 · 359d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?missed

SELL Yes @ 92.5¢$32.4k

MED sdiff123 · 359d ago

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