← Wallets
+$261No · avg 65¢ → 66¢ · $13.3k+$520No · avg 83¢ → 88¢ · $11.1k−$235No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $6,015−$25Yes · avg 79¢ → 78¢ · $3,925+$79No · avg 95¢ → 98.1¢ · $2,491+$199No · avg 69¢ → 78¢ · $1,862
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -6.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-6.2 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$132.8k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$80.9k
Last 30 days −$15.7k · $8.75M volume · 10,492 trades · since Oct 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$268.8k
Open P&L · 204 positions
−$151.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
365d
1019 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | -5.4 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -8.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 95.3¢ | $16.2k | missed |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $14.1k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
 Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | LOW SELL No @ 92¢ | $10.2k | missed |
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