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+$82No · avg 96.5¢ → 96.9¢ · $20.2k−$2No · avg 95.5¢ → 95.5¢ · $15.0k+$205No · avg 97.6¢ → 99¢ · $14.8k+$30No · avg 98.2¢ → 98.5¢ · $14.8k−$11No · avg 98.9¢ → 98.8¢ · $10.8k+$9No · avg 96.8¢ → 96.9¢ · $9,500+$179No · avg 96.5¢ → 98.5¢ · $8,848−$137No · avg 87¢ → 86¢ · $7,980
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did +9.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +7.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+9.9 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$465.7k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$23k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? at 71¢) and the edge is +7.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 84% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$472.7k
Last 30 days +$31.0k · $161.51M volume · 449,444 trades · since Mar 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$544.3k
Open P&L · 134 positions
+$1,443
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
574d
3204 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 8 | 5 | 4.2 | +9.9 pts |
History
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