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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.4 wins, so it did +8.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +2.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+8.8 pts
Called / graded
5/7
Expected from price
4.4
Flagged volume
$879.9k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$16k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? at 52¢) and the edge is +2.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 20% · n=1
40–60¢
50% vs 53% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 73% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 94% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$28.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $11.56M volume · 1,958 trades · since Jun 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$457.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
32%
148 closed
Wallet age · markets
136d
313 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 5 | 4.4 | +8.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 92.7¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL England @ 54¢ | $34.8k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $21.0k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 87¢ | $35.6k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 92.1¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW SELL France @ 39¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 59¢ | $25.0k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 84¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $19.7k | called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $29.1k | called |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $20.1k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢ | $25.8k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 34¢ | $26.9k | called |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 6.3¢ | $10.3k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 54¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW SELL England @ 52¢ | $21.7k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $11.4k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 34¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 7.2¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $18.5k | called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $26.7k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $48.8k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $118.5k 5.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 69¢ | $10.0k | called |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | MED SELL Knicks @ 31¢ | $90.3k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $140.7k 6.9× usual |
called |
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