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What this means. A wallet put $92.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 45% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+10.0 pts over 71 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$92.9k
BUY Yes @ 45¢ · 206,402 shares
Size ≥ $10kProven wallet4.4× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet omnibus-076daa took Yes (buy) for $92.9k at an average 45¢. At that price the market implied a 45% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $92.9k+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 45¢ means
45%chance the market gave
+122American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 45¢
- Implied odds
- 45.0%
- As American odds
- +122 no vig
- Size
- $92.9k
- Placed
- Oct 13, 23:27 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 14, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- omnibus-076daa
- Tx
- 0xcb295fdc…
This wallet's graded record
41/71+10.0 pts
expected 33.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -45 ptsYes price · entry 45¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $70.7k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? | LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $190.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $49.9k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $98.0k 3.8× usual |
missed |