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What this means. A wallet put $10.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 38% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$10.0k
BUY Yes @ 38¢ · 26,647 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet awfully took Yes (buy) for $10.0k at an average 38¢. At that price the market implied a 38% chance for that side. Pending: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $10.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 38¢ means
38%chance the market gave
+166American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 38¢
- Implied odds
- 37.5%
- Size
- $10.0k
- Placed
- Oct 24, 04:16 EDT
- Market close
- Nov 03, 23:59 EST
- Result
- not settled yet
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- awfully
- Tx
- 0xca8f710f…
Share this receipt
Price since this bet
Since entry -1.0 ptsYes price · entry 38¢ · now 36¢
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 34¢ | $50.0k | pending |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 34¢ | $50.0k | pending |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $27.3k | pending |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $14.0k | pending |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $21.3k | pending |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $50.0k | pending |
Same event on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same event, which can be on a different answer than this bet. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| YES James Talarico | $90.3k | 64¢ | 46m ago |
| NO Ken Paxton | $56.7k | 64¢ | 9h ago |
| YES Ken Paxton | $47.8k | 34¢ | 1d ago |
| YES James Talarico | $34.0k | 68¢ | 2d ago |
| NO Ken Paxton | $37.4k | 68¢ | 2d ago |