← Wallets
−$2,987No · avg 65¢ → 63¢ · $98.3k+$5,478No · avg 67¢ → 72¢ · $80.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$3,092Yes · avg 68¢ → 72¢ · $50.1k−$1,670Yes · avg 66¢ → 64¢ · $39.0k+$3,823No · avg 42¢ → 47¢ · $37.5k+$1,262No · avg 70¢ → 72¢ · $36.6k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$359Yes · avg 46¢ → 47¢ · $29.8k+$1,164Yes · avg 67¢ → 72¢ · $18.6k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -23.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
No · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
-23.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$184.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±42.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$471.0k
Last 30 days +$98.5k · $4.73M volume · 4,519 trades · since Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$596.6k
Open P&L · 27 positions
−$135.3k
Closed-position win rate
88%
49 closed
Wallet age · markets
178d
66 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -23.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $35.3k | pending |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 65¢ | $27.3k | pending |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 24¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 69¢ | $65.8k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $31.2k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 77¢ | $12.2k | missed |
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