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What this means. A wallet put $38.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 6% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$38.9k
BUY Yes @ 6¢ · 648,534 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Economy
What happened
Wallet 0x20b4…899f took Yes (buy) for $38.9k at an average 6¢. At that price the market implied a 6% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $38.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 6¢ means
6%chance the market gave
+1567American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 6¢
- Implied odds
- 6.0%
- Size
- $38.9k
- Placed
- Feb 14, 08:27 EST
- Market close
- Mar 17, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x20b4…899f
- Tx
- 0xae44043c…
This wallet's graded record
0/2-6.5 pts
expected 0.1 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $159.5k 9.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $17.2k | excluded |