← Wallets
+$1,036No · avg 91.7¢ → 98.1¢ · $15.8k+$1,934No · avg 78¢ → 90¢ · $15.4k+$414No · avg 79¢ → 81¢ · $15.4k−$558No · avg 89¢ → 86¢ · $13.6k+$2,020No · avg 78¢ → 94.5¢ · $11.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,470No · avg 77¢ → 91.5¢ · $9,225+$211Yes · avg 83¢ → 86¢ · $5,085+$231No · avg 87¢ → 91.5¢ · $5,023
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +4.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.2 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$105.6k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$32.7k
Last 30 days −$6,847 · $3.72M volume · 4,865 trades · since Nov 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 415 closed
+$58.3k
Open P&L · 38 positions
−$29.6k
Closed-position win rate
87%
415 closed
Wallet age · markets
699d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +12.6 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $13.9k | missed |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Will Trump visit China by May 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $23.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $11.7k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $10.0k | called |
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