0xe234…304a

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$2,264No · avg 59¢ → 64¢ · $32.4k Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$3,716Yes · avg 57¢ → 68¢ · $23.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?+$1,000No · avg 70¢ → 73¢ · $21.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?+$2,901Yes · avg 71¢ → 90¢ · $14.1k Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$117Yes · avg 21¢ → 20¢ · $9,863 · 0 proven with, 1 against US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?−$818No · avg 26¢ → 24¢ · $8,404 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$256No · avg 20¢ → 21¢ · $7,913 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?−$398Yes · avg 67¢ → 64¢ · $7,559

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Not No · 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Same side: 2 proven · 0 losing Other side: 0 proven · 0 losing

Price-adjusted edge

+5.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$689.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$127.4k

Last 30 days −$21.4k · $27.06M volume · 18,186 trades · since Jun 11, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 460 closed

+$227.6k

Open P&L · 334 positions

−$98.9k

Closed-position win rate

56%

460 closed

Wallet age · markets

135d

563 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+5.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	LOW SELL No @ 92¢	$11.5k	8%	1d ago	pending
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	LOW SELL No @ 92¢	$13.9k	8%	2d ago	pending
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	MED SELL Yes @ 77¢	$31.2k	23%	35d ago	missed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 76¢	$15.2k	24%	35d ago	missed
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$23.1k	77%	36d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	LOW SELL No @ 97.3¢	$11.3k	3%	82d ago	excluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢	$15.5k	96%	83d ago	called
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢	$14.2k	95%	83d ago	called
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢	$11.5k	96%	83d ago	called
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance	LOW SELL Mexico @ 48¢	$48.0k 2.1× usual	52%	110d ago	excluded
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Mexico @ 49¢	$49.0k 2.1× usual	49%	110d ago	excluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$11.7k	100%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$111.1k 4.8× usual	0%	128d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$25.1k	0%	128d ago	excluded
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$22.8k	0%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢	$11.8k	85%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 83¢	$38.6k	83%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 80¢	$32.2k	20%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢	$24.2k	19%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢	$16.9k	84%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 82¢	$27.9k	18%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 78¢	$44.7k	22%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 87¢	$32.1k	87%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90.1¢	$21.2k	90%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$24.6k	67%	131d ago	called

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housepending

SELL No @ 92¢$11.5k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 1d ago

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housepending

SELL No @ 92¢$13.9k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 2d ago

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed

SELL Yes @ 77¢$31.2k

MED 0xe234…304a · 35d ago

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?missed

SELL Yes @ 76¢$15.2k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 35d ago

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?called

BUY Yes @ 77¢$23.1k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 36d ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?excluded

SELL No @ 97.3¢$11.3k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 82d ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?called

BUY No @ 96.3¢$15.5k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 83d ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?called

BUY Yes @ 95¢$14.2k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 83d ago

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?called

BUY No @ 96.2¢$11.5k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 83d ago

Mexico vs. England: Team to Advanceexcluded

SELL Mexico @ 48¢$48.0k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 110d ago

Mexico vs. England: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY Mexico @ 49¢$49.0k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 110d ago

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$11.7k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 128d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$111.1k

MED 0xe234…304a · 128d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$25.1k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 128d ago

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$22.8k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 129d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 85¢$11.8k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 83¢$38.6k

MED 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 80¢$32.2k

MED 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 81¢$24.2k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 84¢$16.9k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 82¢$27.9k

MED 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 78¢$44.7k

MED 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 87¢$32.1k

MED 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 90.1¢$21.2k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?called

BUY Yes @ 67¢$24.6k

LOW 0xe234…304a · 131d ago

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