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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did +4.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -4.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.4 pts
Called / graded
5/7
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$253.2k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$21k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? at 45¢) and the edge is -4.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 12% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 52% · n=2
80–100¢
75% vs 88% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$43.3k
Last 30 days +$3,914 · $4.76M volume · 616 trades · since Oct 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$317.5k
Open P&L · 72 positions
−$292.2k
Closed-position win rate
85%
238 closed
Wallet age · markets
731d
334 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -12.0 pts |
| Sports | 6 | 5 | 4.6 | +7.2 pts |
History
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