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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 5.0 wins, so it did -0.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-0.3 pts
Called / graded
5/10
Expected from price
5.0
Flagged volume
$172.8k
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$24k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? at 37¢) and the edge is -7.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 34% · n=2
40–60¢
33% vs 49% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$72.6k
Last 30 days −$10.6k · $2.27M volume · 1,131 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$416.3k
Open P&L · 50 positions
−$465.7k
Closed-position win rate
98%
40 closed
Wallet age · markets
122d
90 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 5 | 5.0 | -0.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Netherlands win on 2026-09-27? | LOW BUY No @ 31¢ | $11.3k | missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? | LOW BUY No @ 46¢ | $13.3k | missed |
 Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22? | LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $11.0k | missed |
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $14.1k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $26.5k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $16.9k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $30.5k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw? | LOW BUY No @ 70¢ | $26.0k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $10.7k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $12.4k | called |
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