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+$447No · avg 64¢ → 72¢ · $3,934−$873No · avg 38¢ → 28¢ · $2,537−$62No · avg 92.7¢ → 89¢ · $1,677+$1,063Yes · avg 3.7¢ → 16¢ · $1,395−$190Yes · avg 3¢ → 2.6¢ · $1,257+$677Yes · avg 1.3¢ → 3.9¢ · $1,023+$12Yes · avg 3.1¢ → 3.1¢ · $894−$7Yes · avg 3.2¢ → 3¢ · $128
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.4 wins, so it did -7.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-7.7 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.4
Flagged volume
$759.1k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$150k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Trail Blazers vs. Celtics at 73¢) and the edge is -16.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 8% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 70% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 95% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$601.5k
Last 30 days +$328.2k · $50.81M volume · 55,139 trades · since Jan 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.69M
Open P&L · 187 positions
−$609.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
280d
1805 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 3.4 | -7.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Thunder @ 50¢ | $51.2k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Knicks @ 50¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
 Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | MED BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $38.4k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Falcons vs. Packers | LOW BUY Falcons @ 32¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Packers | LOW SELL Packers @ 68¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
 Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Mexico @ 31¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 91.8¢ | $24.8k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $134.0k 7.1× usual |
missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 41¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
 Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $17.4k | called |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 94.3¢ | $15.4k | called |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL No @ 98.6¢ | $47.3k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
 Hurricanes vs. Islanders | LOW BUY Islanders @ 59¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
 Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-03-15? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $31.8k | excluded |
| Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-01-28? | LOW BUY No @ 46¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Trail Blazers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 73¢ | $18.1k | called |
| Nets vs. Clippers | LOW BUY Clippers @ 80¢ | $64.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 61¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED SELL Patriots @ 49¢ | $54.7k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 66¢ | $99.0k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
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