Brokie

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -15.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?−$14.2kYes · avg 49¢ → 44¢ · $147.1k Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?+$3,452No · avg 92.4¢ → 97.7¢ · $63.8k Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?+$44.3kYes · avg 0.4¢ → 15¢ · $45.4k Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$3,671No · avg 85¢ → 97.1¢ · $28.9k 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House+$5,615Yes · avg 47¢ → 66¢ · $19.8k · 2 proven with, 0 against Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$1,518No · avg 56¢ → 66¢ · $10.5k Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?+$8,835Yes · avg 0.4¢ → 3.3¢ · $10.0k Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?+$212Yes · avg 62¢ → 64¢ · $9,525

Price-adjusted edge

-15.9 pts

Called / graded

0/2

Expected from price

0.3

Flagged volume

$503.5k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$236.3k

Last 30 days −$30.4k · $22.94M volume · 13,683 trades · since Mar 27, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$827.8k

Open P&L · 256 positions

−$127.1k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

942d

969 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	0	0.3	-15.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$117.1k 4.9× usual	100%	129d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED SELL Yes @ 85¢	$59.9k 2.5× usual	15%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 82¢	$11.2k	18%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 82¢	$16.3k	18%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢	$20.4k	82%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	MED BUY Yes @ 52¢	$36.5k	52%	132d ago	called
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$19.9k	0%	143d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$12.2k	0%	145d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY Yes @ 9¢	$12.6k	9%	175d ago	missed
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$30.0k	100%	176d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$70.0k 2.9× usual	0%	201d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢	$24.9k	83%	202d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢	$24.9k	83%	204d ago	called
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	LOW SELL No @ 77¢	$23.8k	23%	229d ago	missed
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$23.7k	100%	353d ago	excluded

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$117.1k

LOW Brokie · 129d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 85¢$59.9k

MED Brokie · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 82¢$11.2k

LOW Brokie · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 82¢$16.3k

LOW Brokie · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 82¢$20.4k

LOW Brokie · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?called

BUY Yes @ 52¢$36.5k

MED Brokie · 132d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$19.9k

LOW Brokie · 143d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.7¢$12.2k

LOW Brokie · 145d ago

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?missed

BUY Yes @ 9¢$12.6k

LOW Brokie · 175d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$30.0k

LOW Brokie · 176d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$70.0k

LOW Brokie · 201d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?called

BUY Yes @ 83¢$24.9k

LOW Brokie · 202d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?called

BUY Yes @ 83¢$24.9k

LOW Brokie · 204d ago

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?missed

SELL No @ 77¢$23.8k

LOW Brokie · 229d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$23.7k

LOW Brokie · 353d ago

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