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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did -1.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-1.1 pts
Called / graded
4/5
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$250.4k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$11k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (France vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 43¢) and the edge is -15.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 43% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 79% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 95% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$273.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $10.64M volume · 12,204 trades · since Sep 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$255.7k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$17.8k
Closed-position win rate
74%
270 closed
Wallet age · markets
416d
263 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | -15.7 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +57.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW SELL France @ 57¢ | $12.7k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL No @ 96¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 44¢ | $18.4k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.4k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $22.2k | excluded |
 Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 94.2¢ | $26.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ | $82.5k 5.8× usual |
called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.9¢ | $10.8k | called |
 Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $13.3k | missed |
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