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Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?excluded
What this means. A wallet put $11.4k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 38% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+10.0 pts over 62 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?excluded$11.4k
BUY Yes @ 38¢ · 30,023 shares
Size ≥ $10kLate (<1h before start)Proven walletSports
What happened
Wallet swisstony took Yes (buy) for $11.4k at an average 38¢. At that price the market implied a 38% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.4k+0
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 38¢ means
38%chance the market gave
+163American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 38¢
- Implied odds
- 38.0%
- As American odds
- +163 no vig
- Size
- $11.4k
- Placed
- Jun 25, 19:54 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 25, 19:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- swisstony
- Tx
- 0xd0912bdc…
This wallet's graded record
51/62+10.0 pts
expected 44.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -38 ptsYes price · entry 38¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 94.6¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED SELL Yes @ 24¢ | $56.9k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $27.0k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 67¢ | $67.8k 3.8× usual |
excluded |