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What this means. A wallet put $15.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 44% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$15.0k
BUY Yes @ 44¢ · 34,291 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet 0x3965…766f took Yes (buy) for $15.0k at an average 44¢. At that price the market implied a 44% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $15.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 44¢ means
44%chance the market gave
+129American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 44¢
- Implied odds
- 43.7%
- Size
- $15.0k
- Placed
- Oct 29, 09:03 EDT
- Market close
- Nov 02, 11:26 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x3965…766f
- Tx
- 0xb0f874ec…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-43.7 pts
expected 0.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -44 ptsYes price · entry 44¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $230.3k 7.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ | $19.9k | excluded |