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What this means. A wallet put $12.9k on No, at a price that gave it a 43% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 16 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.9k
BUY No @ 43¢ · 30,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kSports
What happened
Wallet plonker2026 took No (buy) for $12.9k at an average 43¢. At that price the market implied a 43% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.9k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 43¢ means
43%chance the market gave
+133American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 43¢
- Implied odds
- 43.0%
- As American odds
- +133 no vig
- Size
- $12.9k
- Placed
- Oct 05, 13:33 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 05, 14:45 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- plonker2026
- Tx
- 0xa259d834…
This wallet's graded record
4/16-20.4 pts
expected 7.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -43 ptsNo price · entry 43¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Sweden win on 2026-10-05? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $2.58M | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-10-05? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $45.5k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-10-05? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $1.38M | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-10-05? | LOW SELL No @ 46¢ | $13.0k | excluded |