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What this means. A wallet put $228.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 93% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$228.5k
BUY No @ 93¢ · 245,735 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $100kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)13× this wallet's usual betCrypto
What happened
Wallet larkspur took No (buy) for $228.5k at an average 93¢. At that price the market implied a 93% chance for that side. Pending: the market hasn't settled yet. Once it does, we grade this flag called (the whale's side won) or missed (it lost). More
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $228.5k+2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 93¢ means
93%chance the market gave
−1329American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 93¢
- Implied odds
- 93.0%
- Size
- $228.5k
- Placed
- Oct 21, 23:30 EDT
- Market close
- Jan 01, 00:00 EST
- Result
- not settled yet
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- larkspur
- Tx
- 0x57f10412…
This wallet's graded record
1/2+5.7 pts
expected 0.9 from price
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Price since this bet
Since entry -0.5 ptsNo price · entry 93¢ · now 92.5¢
Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $91.6k 4.3× usual |
pending |