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larkspur

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
+5.7 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$392.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$71.5k
Last 30 days −$5,036 · $2.86M volume · 1,769 trades · since Apr 11, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$72.6k
Open P&L · 34 positions
−$8,775
Closed-position win rate
65%
192 closed
Wallet age · markets
561d
224 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy210.9+5.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?MED BUY No @ 93¢ $228.5k
13.0× usual
93% 2d agopending
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ $16.4k37% 43d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 56¢ $26.2k44% 55d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 54¢ $10.5k46% 55d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ $12.3k48% 56d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 71¢ $18.9k29% 67d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 69¢ $18.8k69% 72d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $33.2k75% 86d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 90¢ $13.0k10% 101d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $14.4k79% 104d agocalled

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xcbc5d8…