← Wallets
+$3,825Yes · avg 46¢ → 66¢ · $13.1k · 2 proven with, 0 against+$2,594Yes · avg 55¢ → 69¢ · $12.8k+$148No · avg 72¢ → 72¢ · $12.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,120Yes · avg 61¢ → 72¢ · $7,737+$1,726Yes · avg 52¢ → 68¢ · $7,409+$3,265Yes · avg 8.6¢ → 16¢ · $7,304+$2,139Yes · avg 32¢ → 46¢ · $7,020+$2,048Yes · avg 51¢ → 74¢ · $6,527
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -16.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-16.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$89.2k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±36.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$281.2k
Last 30 days +$47.5k · $14.37M volume · 32,480 trades · since Jun 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$590.1k
Open P&L · 70 positions
+$24.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
849d
2234 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -16.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 76¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW SELL No @ 84¢ | $12.1k | missed |
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