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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -37.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-37.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$184.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$7,255
Last 30 days +$0 · $543.3k volume · 278 trades · since Mar 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$28.5k
Open P&L · 16 positions
−$21.0k
Closed-position win rate
29%
160 closed
Wallet age · markets
220d
157 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | -37.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 98.4¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $28.0k | excluded |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
 Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $19.6k | called |
 Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $19.0k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ | $26.5k | excluded |
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