TheOneto3

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -13.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?−$89No · avg 83¢ → 82¢ · $14.9k Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?−$607No · avg 20¢ → 18¢ · $5,038 Emeka Egbuka: Anytime Touchdown+$6No · avg 96¢ → 97.5¢ · $392 Emeka Egbuka: Anytime Touchdown−$36Yes · avg 9¢ → 2.5¢ · $13

Price-adjusted edge

-13.0 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.3

Flagged volume

$121.4k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$35.3k

Last 30 days +$15.9k · $15.18M volume · 22,986 trades · since Jan 24, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$2.31M

Open P&L · 30 positions

−$127.6k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

273d

1388 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	1.3	-13.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢	$15.4k	53%	113d ago	excluded
Knicks vs. 76ers	LOW BUY 76ers @ 50¢	$35.0k 2.2× usual	50%	169d ago	missed
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines	LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 48¢	$12.6k	48%	202d ago	excluded
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines	LOW SELL Tennessee Volunteers @ 24¢	$15.7k	76%	209d ago	called
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes	MED SELL Iowa Hawkeyes @ 23¢	$42.8k 2.7× usual	77%	209d ago	excluded

Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scoreexcluded

BUY Yes @ 53¢$15.4k

LOW TheOneto3 · 113d ago

Knicks vs. 76ersmissed

BUY 76ers @ 50¢$35.0k

LOW TheOneto3 · 169d ago

Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesexcluded

BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 48¢$12.6k

LOW TheOneto3 · 202d ago

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinescalled

SELL Tennessee Volunteers @ 24¢$15.7k

LOW TheOneto3 · 209d ago

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesexcluded

SELL Iowa Hawkeyes @ 23¢$42.8k

MED TheOneto3 · 209d ago

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