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BAREFLUX

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -1.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-1.2 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$9.81M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.60M
Last 30 days +$0 · $35.42M volume · 4,721 trades · since Jun 23, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$2.60M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
56%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
123d
9 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports211.0-1.2 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?MED BUY No @ 43¢ $114.4k43% 119d agoexcluded
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?HIGH BUY No @ 42¢ $1.99M42% 119d agoexcluded
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?HIGH BUY No @ 40¢ $314.0k40% 119d agomissed
Will France win on 2026-06-26?HIGH BUY Yes @ 62¢ $2.07M62% 119d agocalled
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?HIGH BUY No @ 53¢ $1.52M53% 120d agoexcluded
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?HIGH BUY Yes @ 65¢ $3.80M
2.2× usual
65% 123d agoexcluded

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