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−$502Team Yandex · avg 58¢ → 48¢ · $2,375
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 5.4 wins, so it did +25.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +21.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+25.8 pts
Called / graded
8/10
Expected from price
5.4
Flagged volume
$852.6k
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$52k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Knicks vs. Spurs at 34¢) and the edge is +21.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 34% · n=1
40–60¢
67% vs 54% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 62% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$828.6k
Last 30 days −$48.3k · $48.22M volume · 42,762 trades · since Feb 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$6.30M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$6.71M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
242d
3069 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 7 | 4.9 | +23.8 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +44.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | LOW SELL Team Yandex @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs | LOW SELL DN SOOPers @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner | LOW SELL Invictus Gaming @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | LOW SELL JD Gaming @ 99.9¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: magic vs TheMongolz (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D | LOW SELL TheMongolz @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
 Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $11.4k | called |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winner | LOW BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 65¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | LOW BUY Monte @ 31¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $70.5k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 56¢ | $37.2k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
 Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 60¢ | $41.4k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | MED BUY Spirit @ 65¢ | $60.2k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 56¢ | $22.4k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 12¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $83.0k 5.7× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 56¢ | $16.8k | called |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $54.0k 3.7× usual |
missed |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Knicks @ 34¢ | $30.6k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 | LOW BUY TYLOO @ 61¢ | $12.2k | called |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 40¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 43¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $13.4k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 41¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs | LOW BUY LYON @ 54¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 44¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | LOW BUY T1 @ 80¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 68¢ | $13.6k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Thunder @ 74¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 59¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $10.5k | called |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Lakers @ 23¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Lakers @ 15¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY 76ers @ 33¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
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