Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$541
Return on staked
+54.1%
Bets
8/10 won
Edge vs price
+25.8 pts ±15.5
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +43.0 pts (5/5). Newer half: +8.6 pts (3/5). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 10, 10:11 EDTJul 04, 10:20 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | 57¢ | called | 112d ago |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | 56¢ | missed | 135d ago |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 56¢ | called | 137d ago |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 54¢ | missed | 138d ago |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | 34¢ | called | 141d ago |
| Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 | 61¢ | called | 142d ago |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 56¢ | called | 147d ago |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | 44¢ | called | 153d ago |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | 60¢ | called | 167d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | 64¢ | called | 167d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.