0xcb58…0160

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +1.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?−$104Yes · avg 81¢ → 80¢ · $11.1k Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$5,284Yes · avg 33¢ → 17¢ · $5,289 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?+$1,107No · avg 73¢ → 93.5¢ · $5,049 Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?+$517No · avg 82¢ → 93.5¢ · $4,207 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?+$312No · avg 82¢ → 94.5¢ · $2,362 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?−$112Yes · avg 92¢ → 88¢ · $2,188 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?−$1,035Yes · avg 30¢ → 18¢ · $1,665 Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?+$350Yes · avg 2¢ → 3¢ · $1,050

Price-adjusted edge

+1.5 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$66.9k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$4,285

Last 30 days −$18.1k · $1.96M volume · 2,746 trades · since Jan 17, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$67.4k

Open P&L · 27 positions

−$70.1k

Closed-position win rate

91%

104 closed

Wallet age · markets

280d

127 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.1	-8.1 pts
Other	1	1	0.9	+11.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢	$14.6k	98%	57d ago	excluded
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$14.9k	100%	75d ago	excluded
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 91.9¢	$13.8k	8%	110d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$12.9k	0%	125d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$10.7k	89%	225d ago	called

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.5¢$14.6k

LOW 0xcb58…0160 · 57d ago

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$14.9k

LOW 0xcb58…0160 · 75d ago

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL No @ 91.9¢$13.8k

LOW 0xcb58…0160 · 110d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$12.9k

LOW 0xcb58…0160 · 125d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called

BUY No @ 89¢$10.7k

LOW 0xcb58…0160 · 225d ago

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