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keribit

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$7,688No · avg 90.2¢ → 97.5¢ · $102.4kWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?+$987No · avg 94¢ → 95.5¢ · $62.1kWill Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?+$944No · avg 92.3¢ → 95.5¢ · $28.6kWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?+$778No · avg 94.5¢ → 97.3¢ · $27.1kWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?+$35No · avg 97.2¢ → 97.6¢ · $9,760
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$125.8k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$118.2k
Last 30 days +$482 · $9.94M volume · 18,825 trades · since Nov 30, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 496 closed
+$100.2k
Open P&L · 6 positions
+$10.4k
Closed-position win rate
80%
496 closed
Wallet age · markets
693d
483 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 22d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 24d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $29.9k100% 35d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $19.9k99% 76d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 250d agoexcluded
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $16.1k100% 253d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW keribit · 22d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW keribit · 24d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$29.9k
LOW keribit · 35d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$19.9k
LOW keribit · 76d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$20.0k
LOW keribit · 250d ago
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$16.1k
LOW keribit · 253d ago

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