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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +21.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+21.2 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$361.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$231.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $15.39M volume · 21,798 trades · since Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 400 closed
+$928.0k
Open P&L · 36 positions
−$323.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
400 closed
Wallet age · markets
828d
1103 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +21.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW SELL Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ | $16.8k | excluded |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $34.5k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $14.0k | called |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 92¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW SELL Connecticut Huskies @ 99.9¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW SELL Connecticut Huskies @ 75¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | LOW SELL Miami Hurricanes @ 52¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $20.4k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 91¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $77.9k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
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