← Wallets
+$6,960No · avg 50¢ → 56¢ · $67.0k−$6,960Yes · avg 50¢ → 44¢ · $53.0k+$1,840No · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $4,965+$227No · avg 88¢ → 96.5¢ · $2,560−$1,840Yes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $1,284+$111No · avg 74¢ → 84¢ · $933+$233No · avg 71¢ → 96.6¢ · $879−$703No · avg 22¢ → 8.5¢ · $443
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +11.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+11.0 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$661.6k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$30.7k
Last 30 days −$258 · $7.99M volume · 3,142 trades · since Nov 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$24.9k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$717
Closed-position win rate
61%
220 closed
Wallet age · markets
721d
— markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 0.7 | +11.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $101.8k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $28.4k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 95¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $380.5k 16.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.9¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $17.0k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 95¢ | $13.2k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $46.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
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