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Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -43.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?−$5Yes · avg 3.4¢ → 3.1¢ · $58

Price-adjusted edge

-43.5 pts

Called / graded

0/2

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$247.7k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$41.4k

Last 30 days −$6 · $2.35M volume · 1,850 trades · since Dec 24, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$41.4k

Open P&L · 1 positions

−$5

Closed-position win rate

74%

95 closed

Wallet age · markets

304d

90 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Crypto	1	0	0.8	-80.0 pts
Economy	1	0	0.1	-7.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$10.0k	80%	145d ago	missed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$44.6k	0%	200d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$100.0k 3.8× usual	100%	200d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 96¢	$19.2k	4%	238d ago	excluded
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢	$26.2k	99%	250d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 93¢	$37.2k	7%	251d ago	missed
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$10.5k	1%	296d ago	excluded

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?missed

BUY Yes @ 80¢$10.0k

LOW imgone · 145d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$44.6k

LOW imgone · 200d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$100.0k

LOW imgone · 200d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 96¢$19.2k

LOW imgone · 238d ago

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.4¢$26.2k

LOW imgone · 250d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?missed

SELL No @ 93¢$37.2k

MED imgone · 251d ago

Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded

SELL No @ 99.5¢$10.5k

LOW imgone · 296d ago

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