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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 5.8 wins, so it did +2.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+2.0 pts
Called / graded
6/11
Expected from price
5.8
Flagged volume
$363.9k
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$37k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United States win on 2026-06-12? at 47¢) and the edge is -3.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 16% · n=2
40–60¢
75% vs 54% · n=4
60–80¢
60% vs 66% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$28.9k
Last 30 days −$11.7k · $2.64M volume · 128 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$428.6k
Open P&L · 48 positions
−$449.1k
Closed-position win rate
96%
28 closed
Wallet age · markets
134d
75 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 11 | 6 | 5.8 | +2.0 pts |
History
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