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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.2 wins, so it did -6.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-6.2 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.2
Flagged volume
$308.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$222.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.72M volume · 4,269 trades · since Apr 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$792.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
193d
1487 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.2 | -6.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 41¢ | $10.9k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 57¢ | $12.5k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 32¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Pistons @ 40¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 18¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $10.4k | called |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY 76ers @ 40¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 48¢ | $26.4k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 52¢ | $26.4k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 74¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 71¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 19¢ | $38.1k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 42¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 70¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Spurs @ 70¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x681504…